Tactics May be the Issue

The Republicans are bemoaning, and the Democrats celebrating, the third straight Democratic victory in a strong Republican congressional district. Three does make it look like a significant trend. The nature of the trend is debatable. While most pundits are arguing for a change among Republicans of message or viewpoint, I suspect too little is made of effective Democratic tactics. In each case, and in many of the seats the Democrats picked up in 2006, the Democrats ran a candidate who had many conservative aspects, often using a service veteran.

The juxtaposition of the most recent congressional triumph of the Democrats, running a DINO, with a recent Wall Street Journal piece from Pat Toomey defending RINO hunting among Republicans is telling. Either party can ably contest districts more sympathetic to the main message of the other, if they run candidates appropriate to the district. As long as the Republicans shun RINOs and the Democrats woe DINOs the US Congress is likely to remain Democratic.

Grading Teachers; Should Student Results Count?

There is a lot to laugh about in this title's question. Laugh-so-you-don't-cry kind of laugh. The Wall Street Journal published an article by John Merrow a few days ago covering the basics of teacher evaluation based on student test performance. My laughter comes from the subsequent letters.

Today's WSJ had a set of these. A couple are logical, straightforward comments saying that results must be the basis of any evaluation. The laugher was caused by a reply from a teacher with 20 years of experience, Karen Fisher, in New York. She writes: "Blame the teachers and the unions--how often do we have to hear the same old tired arguments as to why the American educational system is failing? ... Sorry parents--when your kids don't do well in school, it is usually due to lack of discipline at home."

What is, sort of, funny is that one of the folks engaged in teaching America's young how to think flunks elementary logic. Karen, even if, as you suggest, home-discipline is an important part of the problem, it does not follow that teachers are not an important part of the problem too. This analysis suggests that teachers account for 15%-30% of the variance (that's a lot in a social science setting).

Now, I strongly suspect home discipline is important. I also think innate talent is important as well as peer culture. There is not a lot of good data, but what there is (summarized nicely by Judith Rich Harris in The Nurture Assumption) suggests that peer culture and genetics are both more critical than home environment.

Sadly, teachers and their unions seem to be in step with Karen on all this, sailing down deNial.

What the Libertarian Party and Barr Should Do

BThe entry of Bob Barr, former congressman from Georgia, as a candidate for the Libertarian Party's Presidential nomination may have generated record coverage for that party. The exposure provides the Libertarians with a chance to sell the "product."

Here is what I think they should do. Run only in Georgia. That's it. Focus all effort on Georgia where the results of the (probable) McCain/Obama contest is not in doubt. Voters there will feel free to vote Libertarian. The advantages of such a focus are: Barr is best known in Georgia; this, novel, one-state strategy will accrue further attention to his candidacy; the limited resources available will go much farther spent in one state only.

The disadvantages are slight. The party would pass up the opportunity to battle Nader and the Greens for the "Top of the Irrelevant" crown. Instead, the Libertarians should try to enter the national political consciousness by getting some 5% or even 10% of the voters in Georgia. That would get them, and their ideas, talked about.